Fear and Deprivation in Trump’s America: A Regional Analysis of Voting Behavior in the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections

Authors

  • Sanaz Talaifar Orcid
    Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
  • Michael Stuetzer Orcid
    Department of Industry, Baden Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University, Mannheim, Germany; Faculty of Economic Sciences and Media, Institute of Economics, Ilmenau University of Technology, Ilmenau, Germany
  • Peter J. Rentfrow Orcid
    Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • Jeff Potter Orcid
    Atof, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
  • Samuel D. Gosling Orcid
    Department of Psychology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA; School of Psychological Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Abstract

Since Trump was elected U.S. President in 2016, researchers have sought to explain his support, with some focusing on structural factors (e.g., economics) and others focusing on psychological factors (e.g., negative emotions). We integrate these perspectives in a regional analysis of 18+ structural variables capturing economic, demographic, and health factors as well as the aggregated neuroticism scores of 3+ million individuals. Results revealed that regions that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 had high levels of neuroticism and economic deprivation. Regions that voted for Trump also had high anti-Black implicit bias and low ethnic diversity, though Trump made gains in ethnically diverse regions in 2020. Trump’s voter base differed from the voter base of more traditional Republican candidates and Democrat Bernie Sanders. In sum, structural and psychological factors both explain Trump’s unique authoritarian appeal.